Showing posts with label Recovery. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Recovery. Show all posts

Friday, April 26, 2013

Silver bottoms out, but looks poised for recovery

Traders were more active in mini contracts that the standard contracts due to the uncertainty prevailing in the market, analysts said. Low volumes and fall in open interest in COmex silver portends weakness to continue for some more time in silver. Silver is also not likely to get any support from the base metals complex which also remains weak due to weak

NEWYORK/ MUMBAI (Bullion Street): US silver futures seems to have bottomed out at $22 per ounce levels and looks poised for some upward moves although volume and open interest has dropped signficantly over the past week. At India's Multi Commodity Exchange, Silver May contract is o.64% at Rs 43693 per kg on Monday afternoon trade.

" On daily charts both Comex silver and MCX silver seems to have bottomed out and looking for a push upwards although recovery signs are weak," Sreekumar Raghavan, Investment Strategist at Commodity Online Group said. Prices are still below the 20 day SMA of Rs 47635.40 at MCX while RSI of 19.76 is extremely bearish and still in oversold territory, he added.

Traders were more active in mini contracts that the standard contracts due to the uncertainty prevailing in the market, analysts said. Low volumes and fall in open interest in COmex silver portends weakness to continue for some more time in silver. Silver is also not likely to get any support from the base metals complex which also remains weak due to weak China GDP data although better US Q1 GDP data due on Friday 26 April and Japan's monetary accomodation and likely ECB rate cuts may help push silver prices higher, analysts added.

Next major resistance for Comex silver is seen at $26 while support is seen near term at $22.75 and RSI of 24.42 is still bearish oversold territory, Sreekumar Raghavan added.

"The sharp fall in the prices of gold and silver may have stemmed from the shift in market sentiment towards precious metals. The minutes of the previous FOMC meeting, the decision of BOJ to augment its asset purchase program, the weak economic data on China may have also contributed to the tumble in gold and silver prices. Following such a sharp drop in prices, a correction might occur that will pull up gold and silver. But as the week will progress, if the current bearish market sentiment towards precious metals will persist, gold and silver are likely to resume their downward trend," according to a market review published in Seeking Alpha.


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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Gold,Silver start cautious recovery

The precious yellow metal peaked to $1381.80 an ounce in early Asian trade Wednesday after hit a low of $1321 an ounce on Tuesday.

TOKYO(BullionStreet): Gold prices steadied after losing 13 percent of it's value while silver also made a cautious recovery.

The euro jumped one per cent against the dollar as buyers returned to share markets and gold rebounded following Monday's rout.

The precious yellow metal peaked to $1381.80 an ounce in early Asian trade Wednesday after hit a low of $1321 an ounce on Tuesday.

The recovery came a day after a deep plunge in markets and commodities spurred by poor Chinese growth data and then the bombings in Boston, which killed three people.

Cash silver gained 0.8 per cent to $23.58 an ounce after falling to $22.07 yesterday, the cheapest since October 2010.

Spot platinum slipped 0.3 per cent to $1444.25 an ounce, while palladium was little changed at $677.40 an ounce.

Some analysts said they've seen about a $30 recovery in the gold price overnight and believes the long-term prospects remain good for gold.

They added that due to a steady recovery of global financial markets and the strengthening of the US dollar, gold’s bull run may have come to an end.

The world's gold mining companies will be hoping the precious metal recovers. Analysts say if the precious metal were to fall below $1200 an ounce, many mining companies would lose money.


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Thursday, April 18, 2013

WRAPUP 2-IMF trims global growth forecast, sees bumpy recovery

* IMF sees world growth of 3.3 pct in 2013, down two-tenths

* IMF warns against fatigue in battling European debt crisis

* Japan economy to expand with new monetary steps

* Fund estimates first Fed rate increase in 2016

* Emerging economies picking up steam again

By Lesley Wroughton

WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday trimmed projections for global economic growth for this year and next to take into account sharp government spending cuts in the United States and the latest struggles of recession-stricken Europe.

While it said economic prospects had improved in recent months with a fading of financial risks, it warned Europe against relaxing efforts to combat its debt crisis given the messy bailout in Cyprus and a political stalemate in Italy.

The IMF raised its forecast for Japan, welcoming the Bank of Japan's aggressive new monetary stimulus, which it said would boost growth and help vanquish deflation.

"While some tail risks have decreased it is not time for policymakers to relax," IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard told a news conference to discuss the World Economic Outlook.

The report was released as global financial leaders gathered for the semiannual meetings of the IMF and World Bank later this week.

The IMF cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.3 percent, down from its January projection of 3.5 percent. It also trimmed its 2014 forecast to 4.0 percent from 4.1 percent.

A more subdued outlook for the United States and for the euro zone led it to lower its growth forecast for advanced economies to 1.2 percent for 2013 while it kept its 2014 forecast at 2.2 percent.

While it lowered its projections for growth in emerging economies to 5.3 percent for this year, it also said growth was already accelerating and would hit 5.7 percent in 2014. Growth has returned to a healthy pace in China and activity is expected to recover in Brazil next year, the IMF said.

Strong domestic demand in sub-Saharan Africa should help boost growth in both resource-rich and poorer economies in that region, the Fund added. Meanwhile, growth in the Middle East and North Africa is likely to dip this year as oil production slows in some oil-exporting nations and "Arab Spring" countries struggle with political transitions.

"Notwithstanding old dangers and new turbulence, the near-term risk picture has improved as recent policy actions in Europe and the United States have addressed some of the gravest short-term risks," the Fund said.

BOJ ON TRACK BUT NEEDS HELP

Blanchard said the dramatic overhaul of monetary policy announced by the Bank of Japan was a necessary step and he hoped it would succeed.

The IMF said inflation in Japan would likely rise above zero in 2013 and temporarily jump in 2014 and 2015 in response to an increase in consumption taxes.

The Bank of Japan unleashed an intense burst of monetary stimulus earlier this month, pledging to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economy in less than two years, a major shift from its previous incremental steps.

Tokyo came under fire before a meeting of officials from the Group of 20 leading economies in February for comments that suggested it was targeting specific levels for the yen with its easing of monetary and fiscal policy. The yen last week hit a four-year low against the dollar.

But the IMF said it found "no large deviations of the major currencies from medium-term fundamentals" and dismissed talk of a "currency war" as overblown.

"We think it is a logical consequence of appropriate monetary policy," Blanchard said when asked about the yen's sharp decline.

The Fund said the U.S. dollar and euro "appear moderately overvalued" and the Chinese renminbi "moderately undervalued." Evidence on the value of the yen "is mixed," it added.

FIRST FED RATE INCREASE IN 2016

The IMF said Europe and the United States had dodged bullets by enacting policies that laid to rest the notion of a euro zone breakup and the possibility the world's richest economy would fall off a "fiscal cliff" of tax increases and budget cuts.

However, it suggested an easier monetary policy might be warranted in the euro zone.

"Given moderating inflation pressure, monetary policy should remain very accommodative. Room is still available for further conventional easing, as inflation is projected to fall below the European Central Bank's target in the medium term," it said.

The IMF forecast economic contractions in France, Spain and Italy this year. IMF economist Jorg Decressin said Italy's economic policy was on the right track and prospects would brighten next year with less need for government spending cuts. He also said fiscal policy in France is "appropriate" even if the country misses the goal to trim the deficit below an EU ceiling of 3 percent of GDP in 2013.

The Fund also made clear that, while a worst-case outcome had been avoided, fiscal policy in Washington had tightened more than it had expected - a key reason for its forecast downgrade.

It said across-the-board spending cuts known as the "sequester" would shave about 0.3 percentage points from gross domestic product this year, the IMF said. If the sequester continued into the next fiscal year, it could trim another 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth, the IMF added.

Blanchard said without fiscal consolidation, U.S. economic growth would probably be between 1.5 percent to 2 percent higher this year.

As for U.S. monetary policy, the IMF said it expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates near zero into early 2016, although it cautioned that the Fed may need to tighten policy earlier "should upside risks to growth materialize."

The Fed last month maintained a controversial program of buying $85 billion of bonds a month, while pledging to keep interest rates near zero at least until unemployment falls to 6.5 percent, so long as inflation stays under 2.5 percent.

The Fund said developing a comprehensive medium-term deficit reduction framework that reformed so-called entitlement programs and raised additional revenues should be the top priority for the United States.

"Such a comprehensive plan should place fiscal consolidation on a gradual path in the short term, in light of the fragile recovery and limited room for monetary policy," the IMF added.


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