Showing posts with label forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecast. Show all posts

Friday, April 26, 2013

Gold exposed to downside risk, forecast Q2 2013 $1350 oz: Barclays

Physical demand has been strong in China, India, US Mint has reported record coin sales of 167.5koz so far in April, while Gold bar premiums in Singapore has gained considerably.



LONDON (Bullion Street): The near term outllook for gold remains fragile and is exposed to downside risk on sharp fall in holdings in exchange traded funds, according to Barclays Research.??Price forecasts: Q2 13: $1350/oz; 2013: $1483/oz?


"Beyond this, we believe the macro backdrop remains gold-supportive, and expect prices to recover to average $1500/oz in Q4 13," Barclays added.


The US QQ GDP data is expected to show a real growth of 3% annualised and in Europe, euro area PMI (Tuesday) and Germany’s IFO (Wednesday) data could push the ECB to cut rates while Japan is expected to remain accomodative. The macro-environment in general is bulish for gold, Barclays added.


On the other hand, investor flows especially to exchange traded funds, which fell 117 tons for month to day, already surpassing February as the weakest month on record.Outflows have reached 277 tonnes for the year-to-date, which is almost equivalent to inflows in 2012 at 279 tonnes.


Surprisingly, the latest CFTC data for the week ended 16 April revealed that net fund length in Comex gold rose by 9.5k lots to 128.9k lots, the highest in three weeks. Gross long non-commercial positions were mostly stable at 204.7k lots (from 203.8k lots the previous week) and gross short positions actually fell by 8.7k lots. The data including futures and options reveal a similar picture. Given the speed and magnitude of the price decline on Friday and Monday, which is captured within these data, it would appear any positions of size that were instigated were quickly closed, whether it was long liquidation followed by fresh longs at lower levels or fresh shorts covered subsequently, Barclays report said.?


Physical demand has been strong in China, India, US Mint has reported record coin sales of 167.5koz so far in April, while Gold bar premiums in Singapore has gained considerably.


Technical Strategy: "BEARISH?-Last week’s break below the important range lows near 1521 signals a deeper-than-initially-expected pullback in gold. For now, we view this as a cyclical correction rather than a major reversal. Our revised downside targets are in the 1275 area, which would equate to a similar percentage decline off the highs, as was seen back in 2008. It would take a move back above the former lows near 1521 to alleviate the current downside pressure.?-Support: 1340, 1321, 1275?-Resistance: 1426, 1455, 1521," Barclays added.


Photo Courtesy: Bigstockphoto.com


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Gold exposed to downside risk, forecast Q2 2013 $1350 oz: Barclays

Physical demand has been strong in China, India, US Mint has reported record coin sales of 167.5koz so far in April, while Gold bar premiums in Singapore has gained considerably.

LONDON (Bullion Street): The near term outllook for gold remains fragile and is exposed to downside risk on sharp fall in holdings in exchange traded funds, according to Barclays Research.??Price forecasts: Q2 13: $1350/oz; 2013: $1483/oz?

"Beyond this, we believe the macro backdrop remains gold-supportive, and expect prices to recover to average $1500/oz in Q4 13," Barclays added.

The US QQ GDP data is expected to show a real growth of 3% annualised and in Europe, euro area PMI (Tuesday) and Germany’s IFO (Wednesday) data could push the ECB to cut rates while Japan is expected to remain accomodative. The macro-environment in general is bulish for gold, Barclays added.

On the other hand, investor flows especially to exchange traded funds, which fell 117 tons for month to day, already surpassing February as the weakest month on record.Outflows have reached 277 tonnes for the year-to-date, which is almost equivalent to inflows in 2012 at 279 tonnes.

Surprisingly, the latest CFTC data for the week ended 16 April revealed that net fund length in Comex gold rose by 9.5k lots to 128.9k lots, the highest in three weeks. Gross long non-commercial positions were mostly stable at 204.7k lots (from 203.8k lots the previous week) and gross short positions actually fell by 8.7k lots. The data including futures and options reveal a similar picture. Given the speed and magnitude of the price decline on Friday and Monday, which is captured within these data, it would appear any positions of size that were instigated were quickly closed, whether it was long liquidation followed by fresh longs at lower levels or fresh shorts covered subsequently, Barclays report said.?

Physical demand has been strong in China, India, US Mint has reported record coin sales of 167.5koz so far in April, while Gold bar premiums in Singapore has gained considerably.

Technical Strategy: "BEARISH?-Last week’s break below the important range lows near 1521 signals a deeper-than-initially-expected pullback in gold. For now, we view this as a cyclical correction rather than a major reversal. Our revised downside targets are in the 1275 area, which would equate to a similar percentage decline off the highs, as was seen back in 2008. It would take a move back above the former lows near 1521 to alleviate the current downside pressure.?-Support: 1340, 1321, 1275?-Resistance: 1426, 1455, 1521," Barclays added.

Photo Courtesy: Bigstockphoto.com


View the original article here

Thursday, April 18, 2013

WRAPUP 2-IMF trims global growth forecast, sees bumpy recovery

* IMF sees world growth of 3.3 pct in 2013, down two-tenths

* IMF warns against fatigue in battling European debt crisis

* Japan economy to expand with new monetary steps

* Fund estimates first Fed rate increase in 2016

* Emerging economies picking up steam again

By Lesley Wroughton

WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday trimmed projections for global economic growth for this year and next to take into account sharp government spending cuts in the United States and the latest struggles of recession-stricken Europe.

While it said economic prospects had improved in recent months with a fading of financial risks, it warned Europe against relaxing efforts to combat its debt crisis given the messy bailout in Cyprus and a political stalemate in Italy.

The IMF raised its forecast for Japan, welcoming the Bank of Japan's aggressive new monetary stimulus, which it said would boost growth and help vanquish deflation.

"While some tail risks have decreased it is not time for policymakers to relax," IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard told a news conference to discuss the World Economic Outlook.

The report was released as global financial leaders gathered for the semiannual meetings of the IMF and World Bank later this week.

The IMF cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.3 percent, down from its January projection of 3.5 percent. It also trimmed its 2014 forecast to 4.0 percent from 4.1 percent.

A more subdued outlook for the United States and for the euro zone led it to lower its growth forecast for advanced economies to 1.2 percent for 2013 while it kept its 2014 forecast at 2.2 percent.

While it lowered its projections for growth in emerging economies to 5.3 percent for this year, it also said growth was already accelerating and would hit 5.7 percent in 2014. Growth has returned to a healthy pace in China and activity is expected to recover in Brazil next year, the IMF said.

Strong domestic demand in sub-Saharan Africa should help boost growth in both resource-rich and poorer economies in that region, the Fund added. Meanwhile, growth in the Middle East and North Africa is likely to dip this year as oil production slows in some oil-exporting nations and "Arab Spring" countries struggle with political transitions.

"Notwithstanding old dangers and new turbulence, the near-term risk picture has improved as recent policy actions in Europe and the United States have addressed some of the gravest short-term risks," the Fund said.

BOJ ON TRACK BUT NEEDS HELP

Blanchard said the dramatic overhaul of monetary policy announced by the Bank of Japan was a necessary step and he hoped it would succeed.

The IMF said inflation in Japan would likely rise above zero in 2013 and temporarily jump in 2014 and 2015 in response to an increase in consumption taxes.

The Bank of Japan unleashed an intense burst of monetary stimulus earlier this month, pledging to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economy in less than two years, a major shift from its previous incremental steps.

Tokyo came under fire before a meeting of officials from the Group of 20 leading economies in February for comments that suggested it was targeting specific levels for the yen with its easing of monetary and fiscal policy. The yen last week hit a four-year low against the dollar.

But the IMF said it found "no large deviations of the major currencies from medium-term fundamentals" and dismissed talk of a "currency war" as overblown.

"We think it is a logical consequence of appropriate monetary policy," Blanchard said when asked about the yen's sharp decline.

The Fund said the U.S. dollar and euro "appear moderately overvalued" and the Chinese renminbi "moderately undervalued." Evidence on the value of the yen "is mixed," it added.

FIRST FED RATE INCREASE IN 2016

The IMF said Europe and the United States had dodged bullets by enacting policies that laid to rest the notion of a euro zone breakup and the possibility the world's richest economy would fall off a "fiscal cliff" of tax increases and budget cuts.

However, it suggested an easier monetary policy might be warranted in the euro zone.

"Given moderating inflation pressure, monetary policy should remain very accommodative. Room is still available for further conventional easing, as inflation is projected to fall below the European Central Bank's target in the medium term," it said.

The IMF forecast economic contractions in France, Spain and Italy this year. IMF economist Jorg Decressin said Italy's economic policy was on the right track and prospects would brighten next year with less need for government spending cuts. He also said fiscal policy in France is "appropriate" even if the country misses the goal to trim the deficit below an EU ceiling of 3 percent of GDP in 2013.

The Fund also made clear that, while a worst-case outcome had been avoided, fiscal policy in Washington had tightened more than it had expected - a key reason for its forecast downgrade.

It said across-the-board spending cuts known as the "sequester" would shave about 0.3 percentage points from gross domestic product this year, the IMF said. If the sequester continued into the next fiscal year, it could trim another 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth, the IMF added.

Blanchard said without fiscal consolidation, U.S. economic growth would probably be between 1.5 percent to 2 percent higher this year.

As for U.S. monetary policy, the IMF said it expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates near zero into early 2016, although it cautioned that the Fed may need to tighten policy earlier "should upside risks to growth materialize."

The Fed last month maintained a controversial program of buying $85 billion of bonds a month, while pledging to keep interest rates near zero at least until unemployment falls to 6.5 percent, so long as inflation stays under 2.5 percent.

The Fund said developing a comprehensive medium-term deficit reduction framework that reformed so-called entitlement programs and raised additional revenues should be the top priority for the United States.

"Such a comprehensive plan should place fiscal consolidation on a gradual path in the short term, in light of the fragile recovery and limited room for monetary policy," the IMF added.


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Thursday, April 11, 2013

U.S. blizzard, possible tornadoes forecast in nasty weather week

By Kevin Murphy

KANSAS CITY, Kansas | Mon Apr 8, 2013 5:31pm EDT

KANSAS CITY, Kansas (Reuters) - Forecasters called for strong hail and possible tornadoes in western Kansas and a blizzard in four other states on Monday in the first of what are expected to be several days of nasty weather in the middle of the country.

The blizzard was expected to hit Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming on Monday. An Arctic cold front has triggered winter weather warnings over most of Colorado, said National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Kalina.

Meanwhile, warm air from the south mixing with cold air from Colorado is expected to cause severe weather in western Kansas, including possible tornadoes, said weather service meteorologist Matt Gerard, based in Dodge City, Kansas.

"It's a clash of air masses going on," Gerard said, adding that forecasts call for large hail in western Kansas.

Denver and its urban area could get up to 11 inches of snow overnight and through Tuesday, said Kalina. He said temperatures could plunge some 40 degrees from the mid-60s on Monday to well below freezing when the front moves through.

Areas from Denver to Rapid City, South Dakota; Casper, Wyoming; and Scottsbluff, Nebraska are expected to see blizzard conditions between Monday night and Tuesday, with plunging temperatures, high winds and heavy snow, according to Accuweather.com. The blizzard is forecast to move into north central Nebraska and central Minnesota later Tuesday into Wednesday.

South Dakota transportation officials advised travelers to move up travel plans to reach intended destinations during daylight hours, and be prepared to stay in until the storm passes. Heavy snowfall is expected, from 3 to 16 inches in the state, with winds up to 40 miles per hour.

The nasty weather will move toward more populated areas on Tuesday evening, with hail, damaging winds and some possibility of tornadoes predicted around Kansas City, Oklahoma City, and the Dallas-Fort Worth area in Texas, according to Robert Thompson, lead forecaster with the National Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.

Forecasters expect the front to hit Arkansas Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a line of thunderstorms expected to bring as much as three inches of rain and damaging winds, according to the National Weather Service.

The tornado season in the United States typically starts in the Gulf Coast states in the late winter, and then moves north with the warming weather, peaking around May and trailing off by July.

(Reporting by Kevin Murphy in Kansas City, Suzi Parker in Arkansas, Keith Coffman in Denver and Mary Wisniewski in Chicago; Editing by Scott Malone, Sofina Mirza-Reid, Greg McCune and James Dalgleish)


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